Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 215,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s May update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected monthly rise is substantially below the previously reported increase of 273,000 for April.
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Private-sector payrolls rose less than expected in May, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. Companies added a net 179,000 jobs to the labor market in seasonally adjusted terms—well below the expected 210,000 gain based on the consensus forecast. The monthly comparison is a disappointment, but it looks like noise when you consider that ADP’s tally of payrolls for last month still shows growth at roughly 2% on a year-over-year basis.
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Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 220,000 (seasonally adjusted) in May over the previous month in tomorrow’s release of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected gain matches the previously reported increase for April.
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Last week’s update on personal income and spending rattled some analysts because the report showed that consumption fell 0.1% in April vs. the previous month. By some accounts, this is a clear sign that the economy is in trouble. Maybe, but that’s premature at this point. No matter how hard you scrub the monthly comparisons, they’re usually too volatile to draw reliable conclusions about the big-picture trend–a caveat that surely applies to the latest spending data.
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A bullish tailwind continued blowing through most asset classes in May. The main exceptions: commodities overall and two corners in the foreign-bond markets (high yield and corporates). Otherwise, prices were generally higher last month for the major asset classes, led by a 3.9% increase in foreign REITs/real estate, based on the S&P Global ex-US REIT Index.
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The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase to 55.0 in tomorrow’s update for May—a slight rise vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast.
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