The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise incrementally to +0.20 in tomorrow’s update for May, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The projection is virtually unchanged from the previously released +0.19 reading for April, which reflected above-average economic growth relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for May, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth, and at a moderately above-trend pace.
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