Retail sales in May rose at a lesser rate than the crowd expected, but the year-over-year trend continues to advance at a 4%-plus pace, the Census Bureau reports. Spending ex-gasoline sales doesn’t alter the generally upbeat profile. The last two monthly changes, however, show a substantial deceleration in growth. Is this a sign of trouble for the all-important consumer-spending outlook? Maybe, but if it is we’ll see a more persuasive signal in the annual pace of retail sales in the months ahead. For now, it looks like nothing much has changed in terms of the trend.
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Iraq oil shock could kill world economic recovery, experts warn
The Telegraph | June 11
As violence threatens Iraq’s oil industry, experts fear crude at $130 per barrel would damage the global economy.
Open warfare between the government and rebels in Iraq would pose a threat to the global economic recovery should oil production from the war-torn Middle East state suffer a serious disruption, analysts have warned….
“The worst case scenario is that we see production from Iraq slip down to levels in the last Gulf war, then oil could spike $20 a barrel very quickly,” Ole Hansen, vice-president and head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank told The Telegraph.
“In that scenario, the entire economic recovery, which is still fragile, could stall and we could even slip back into recession in some regions.”
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