Housing starts are expected to total 946,000 in tomorrow’s update for April, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents no change vs. the previously reported 946,000 for March.
Continue reading →

Today’s reports on jobless claims and industrial production offer a mixed review for the macro outlook. On the one hand, the sharp decline in new filings for unemployment benefits to a seven-year low is a powerful signal for expecting continued growth in the labor market for the near term. But the surprisingly big slump in industrial output last month throws a bit of cold water on any celebration over the lesser pace of new layoffs. Even so, it’s premature to read too much into the monthly dive in industrial production since the year-over-year trend is still advancing at a decent pace.
Continue reading →

Economic growth slowed to a crawl in the first three months of this year, but a rebound is projected for the second quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric nowcast. GDP is expected to rise 2.8% during the April-through-June period (real seasonally adjusted annual rate). This is an initial estimate that uses limited Q2 data and so the projection is a preliminary review that will be updated several times in the weeks ahead as new economic indicators are published and existing data are revised. The final nowcast for the quarter will be published shortly ahead of the official Q2:2014 GDP report. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release its “advance” Q2 estimate on July 30, 2014.
Continue reading →