US economic growth will slow in this year’s first quarter, according to a range of projections. The consensus view via the Wall Street Journal’s April survey of economists anticipates a 1.5% annualized gain for real GDP in the first three months of this year—a substantially lower pace than the reported 2.6% rate for last year’s fourth quarter. The Capital Spectator’s revised median nowcast for Q1:2014 GDP also reflects a slowdown, but a considerably milder one vs. the crowd’s outlook. In fact, today’s updated outlook for 2.4% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) is modestly above the previous 2.0% nowcast that was published here on March 25. What’s changed? The economic numbers have improved since our last update.
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