In the coming days I’ll be publishing passages from my new book–Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks Ahead Of The Crowd. Let’s kick off the first of several excerpts with an obvious starting point… the beginning.
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There’s a growing list of economic clues that suggest that the moderate pace of expansion, although battered and bruised in January and February, revived last month. Consider yesterday’s update on industrial output, which increased 0.7% in March—a gain that translates into a respectable 3.8% annual rise. Housing starts still look shaky, but most of the other key indicators at the end of this year’s first quarter point to growth. Here’s one more piece of empirical support for thinking positively when it comes to the macro trend: stable inflation expectations and a rising stock market.
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