Housing starts are expected to total 955,000 in tomorrow’s update for February, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a substantial rise vs. the previously reported 880,000 for January. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s median forecast for February is above a trio of consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
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Industrial production unexpectedly increased last month: output climbed 0.6% in February vs. the previous month, or well above most predictions, including The Capital Spectator’s econometric estimate. The good news may not mean much, however, if we’re headed into an economic war with Russia in the wake of yesterday’s vote in the Crimea to secede from Ukraine—an act that the West warns will lead to imposing sanctions on Russia. But for now, let’s consider the upbeat news in the industrial sector as is, even if it’s destined for a rewrite amid what could become the Cold War Light.
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Crimea yesterday voted to rejoin Russia and the West vowed to retaliate by initially imposing sanctions on a select group of Russian officials, assets and bank accounts. It’s anyone’s guess what the second phase of sanctions might look like. No matter the details, the US and Europe can’t reverse what appears to be an overwhelmingly strong desire by Crimeans to break free of Ukraine. Russia, having sent troops into the region and publicly stated its intentions in no uncertain terms, is unlikely to change course. Welcome to the biggest geopolitical stalemate of the 21st century to date.
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