Today’s weekly jobless claims report suggests that that the harsh winter really is the main source of the soft economic data we’ve seen over the past month. If so, the future is somewhat brighter for anticipating a spring rebound. The standard caveat applies when it comes to drawing conclusions from one jobless claims number. Nonetheless, if we suspend our capacity for common sense for a minute, today’s update looks encouraging for thinking that the economy isn’t as wobbly as it appears.
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Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 137,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s February update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected rise is slightly below the previously reported increase of 142,000 for January. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s median January projection is moderately below a pair of consensus forecasts, based on surveys of economists.
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