The US economic trend has rebounded a bit in February after a soft start in the new year, based on a markets-based profile of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 10.8% on Friday, Feb. 14–a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The current 10.8% value is moderately above last month’s low of roughly 8%. More importantly, MMRI is still well above the 0% danger zone. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that economic growth will prevail.
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