The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase marginally to 57.8 in today’s December update (scheduled for release this morning at 10:00 am New York time), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate compares with the previously reported 57.3 for November. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is moderately above a trio of consensus forecasts for December via surveys of economists.

Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:

VAR-1: A vector autoregression model that analyzes the history of industrial production in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The forecasts are run in R with the “vars” package.

VAR-6: A vector autoregression model that analyzes six economic time series in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The six additional series: industrial production, private non-farm payrolls, index of weekly hours worked, US stock market (S&P 500), spot oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread (10 year Note less 3-month T-bill). The forecasts are run in R with the “vars” package.

ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the “forecast” package.

ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the ISM Manufacturing Index in R via the “forecast” package.

The year just passed delivered an unusually wide spectrum of results among the major asset classes. US equities were firmly in the lead, surging more than 30% in 2013. At the final bell for 2013, the biggest retreat was in commodities overall, which sunk more than 9%, based on the DJ-UBS Commodity Index.

In a year filled with an ample supply of surprising twists and turns, broad diversification remained competitive. The Global Market Index (GMI) was ahead last year by a bit more than 14%, dispensing a strong calendar-year performance and offering another reminder that outperforming Mr. Market’s asset allocation is as challenging as ever.

For the lucky (smart?) few who managed to beat the odds, last year’s recipe for success came in two basic flavors: overweight developed-world stocks (US equities in particular) and/or go light on bonds. It’s anyone’s guess what 2014’s winning strategy will be. That doesn’t stop the pundits from offering advice. But before you go off the deep end and embrace a self-proclaimed oracle’s forecasts, ask yourself a simple question: How do his predictions from a year ago stack up today?

Speaking of predictions, here’s one that’s likely to stand the test of time: GMI’s performance in 2014 will remain above average when we tally the numbers a year from now vs. a broad span of actively managed efforts intent on generating superior results. History suggests that’s a relatively safe forecast, which implies that you need a hefty dose of confidence (or hubris) to move dramatically away from Mr. Market’s portfolio mix in the year ahead.

The new year’s off to an encouraging start with economic news. Today’s updates on jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing Index suggest that moderate growth was still bubbling in the final month of 2013. Although December’s macro profile is still largely a mystery, the numbers du jour imply that last year’s finale will compare favorably with recent history when the full set of data is published in the weeks ahead.

New filings for jobless claims inched lower again last week, dipping 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 for the week through December 28. Although that’s still elevated compared with the post-recession low of 294,000 set back in September, claims are again falling. Today’s retreat is the second weekly decline in a row—a trend we haven’t seen since November. A more persuasive sign of optimism: claims fell last week by nearly 9% vs. the year-earlier level. For the moment, it appears that this leading indicator is again signaling that the labor market will continue growing for the near term. The warnings signs that we saw earlier this month for this series now looks like another false alarm.

Meantime, the manufacturing sector is humming along nicely, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management. Although manufacturing growth for December was a bit softer than expected, the 57.0 reading for last month equates with a healthy rate of expansion (readings above the neutral 50.0 mark equate with growth). Keep in mind that the employment and new orders components in today’s ISM report posted slightly stronger numbers, suggesting that manufacturing’s growth is broad and deep.

The economy’s positive momentum has been conspicuous for some time, as recent history reminds. In last month’s update of the Economic Trend & Momentum indexes, business cycle risk remained low through November and the near-term projections imply that more of the same is on tap. Today’s twin updates certainly offer no reason to change that outlook. It remains to be seen if the year ahead will bring a stronger rate of jobs creation, but it’s a bit easier to think that’s a plausible scenario after looking at today’s numbers.

Yes, it’s been a good year so far for economic news.