The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) posted a sharp rise in November, an indication that “economic activity increased” last month, the Chicago Federal Reserve reports. CFNAI’s three-month moving average moved higher as well, rising to -0.20 last month. That’s close to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast for CFNAI of -0.26, which was published yesterday. A reading above -0.70 for CFNAI’s three-month average suggests that the economy is growing, which is also the message in today’s news on personal income and spending for November.
Daily Archives: December 21, 2012
Three Aces For November: Income, Spending & Durable Goods Orders
Today’s November updates for personal income and spending, along with fresh data on durable goods orders, offer another round of encouraging news on the side of growth. For those who argue that the economy is collapsing, today’s numbers offer a sharp rebuke. In fact, similarly robust numbers for November have been published for other indicators in recent weeks. Earlier this month I projected that the broad profile of economic activity in November was on track to improve over October, and today’s updates all but seal the deal. The main point is that the risk of a recession, based on the numbers in hand, continues to look like a low-probability event in the here and now. That’s been the message all along, and it remains the case today.
Personal Income & Spending: November 2012 Preview
Today’s personal income and spending update for November is widely expected to post a rebound after October’s disappointing results. The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecasts for these indicators echo the market’s outlook: +0.3% for income and +0.4% for spending in today’s release. The gains are in line with market’s expectations. The release for this data hits the street later today at 8:30am eastern via the Bureau of Economic Analysis.