Housing starts fell 3% last month, the Census Bureau reports. The retreat is the first monthly setback since July, although the drop isn’t a big surprise, as I discussed earlier today, before the numbers were released. More importantly, November’s red ink doesn’t appear particularly troubling in terms of the outlook because it doesn’t change the overall momentum profile. The annual trend in new housing construction continues to rise at a strong pace, largely because demographics and demand are again pushing homebuilding activity higher.
Daily Archives: December 19, 2012
Housing Starts: November 2012 Preview
The November update on housing starts is scheduled for release today (8:30 am eastern) and a decline is widely expected vs. October’s 3.6% rise. The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast anticipates a 2.5% decrease. Another factor that implies that starts will fall in November is the relatively high level of new housing construction in October vs. the number of building permits issued in that month. The two series tend to track one another fairly closely through time and so any deviations between the pair don’t usually persist. In recent years, whenever starts exceeded permits, starts usually declined in the following month. In October, starts rose above the level of permits for the first time since April.