Maybe he said it to counter expectations that he would be dovish and follow President Trump’s demands for lower interest rates. Or maybe it was simply a clear‑eyed recognition that inflation has been heating up. Whatever the motivation or strategy, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his public debut on Wednesday, said that “This Committee will deliver price stability,” signaling that a hawkish tilt was possible—perhaps even likely—in the near term.
The Iran Shock Reinvented Tech as the New Safe Haven
The US–Iran conflict may be over, but the damage to the global economy will linger. For tech investors, however, the war has hardly registered. A review of sector ETFs shows that tech stocks have soared since the attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28, lifting this slice of the US equities market far above the rest of the field.
Warsh’s First Test: Steering the Fed Through a Geopolitical Fog
The newly minted US–Iran ceasefire is only a day old, but markets reacted positively. Oil prices and Treasury yields fell, and stock prices surged in Monday’s trading. It’s encouraging early vote of confidence, although the economic effects of the war will linger and any rebound in energy exports from the Middle East will be gradual. That’s the best‑case scenario, which assumes that the US–Iran deal holds and inflation starts to ease.
The Strait Reopens: A Turning Point or a Temporary Truce?
A newly extended U.S.–Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling cautious speculation that the conflict may be entering its final phase. The news will likely give financial markets a boost in the near term, assuming the agreement that the U.S. and Iran announced on Sunday holds.
Book Bits: 13 June 2026
● New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars
Rainer Zitelmann
Review via Real Clear Markets
“Space Economics” has only recently become a thing. Economics is the science of scarcity. Where there is scarcity, there is economics. “Scarcity,” in an economic sense, means that a resource satisfies a human want, but there is not enough of it to satisfy all of those potential wants. So we need to figure out a way to allocate ownership and/or usage rights over the resource. Who gets to use it, how much of it, and in what way?
What counts as a “scarce resource,” in an economic sense, changes over time. It depends, among other things, on our technological possibilities. Oil was not a scarce resource until we figured out how to make use of it: it was just a black liquid which nobody wanted, so the question of how we should allocate property rights over oil wells was not especially relevant. Then oil became “black gold,” and all of a sudden, it mattered hugely.
Markets Stay Risk‑On Despite Alarming Headlines
Maintaining a bullish outlook on markets has become an emotionally challenging affair in recent history, but the crowd continues to look through the constant flow of troubling news and concludes that it’s still reasonable to stay the course. Informed or not, that sentiment has been a winning strategy so far, and remains on display in several sets of ETF pairs that track key market segments through yesterday’s close (June 11).
US 10-Year Yield Risk Premium Continues To Rise
The Iran conflict and rising inflation risk have continued to widen the market premium for the 10‑year yield relative to a fair‑value estimate. As discussed last month, a shift in market sentiment appeared to be unfolding, and today’s update for May underscores the change.
Nowcast Data Suggest US Growth Is Accelerating In Q2
The Middle East crisis appears no closer to resolution, underscored by Tuesday’s US military strikes on Iran. If recent history is a guide, the effects on the U.S. economy will be minimal, as today’s update on nowcasts for second‑quarter GDP suggests.
Safe Havens No More? Treasuries Sink While Riskier Debt Rallies
The search for higher yields continues to elevate the riskier facets of the bond market since the Iran conflict started. By contrast, most slices of the Treasury market remain underwater, based on a set of ETFs.
Is a Prolonged Middle East Conflict Becoming the Base Case?
Starting a war is easy; ending one is hard. That simple calculus is increasingly resonating in financial markets as the backlash from the Middle East conflict persists and evolves. The economic effects have varied, but the recent optimism that the US would remain largely insulated is fading. Markets are beginning to demand higher risk premia as compensation.