The yield premium on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note continued to rise in September, driven by concerns over inflation and government debt. The benchmark yield climbed sharply last month, pushing the spread between the market rate and The Capital Spectator’s estimate of fair value to its widest level in nearly two years.
Global Diversification Pays Off as US Bonds Struggle
It’s been a rough year for the US bond market, but diversifying into international fixed income has helped ease the pain.
Stocks Keep Climbing, but Market Leadership May Be Shifting
The US stock market has defied the bears for much of the year, powering through geopolitical shocks and inflation threats. As investors look toward year-end and beyond, attention is shifting to whether the rally can extend its gains and which corners of the equity market are best positioned to lead.
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A New Middle East Flashpoint Raises the Stakes for Inflation
The battle to tame inflation is expected to suffer another setback in Wednesday’s consumer inflation report for September. Higher energy costs are a key factor, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East suggests that near-term relief is unlikely.
Book Bits: 10 October 2026
● Bear in the Bullring: How Independent Thinking Protects Your Money & Improves Your Life
David Rosenberg
Summary via publisher (Sutherland)
Bear in the Bullring is a clear-eyed guide to thinking better about money, risk, and decision-making in an age of noise and market hype. Drawing on four decades as a top-ranked economist and strategist, David Rosenberg distills the principles that have helped him protect capital, navigate bubbles, and avoid the costly mistakes that derail most investors.
US Economic Growth Expected To Strengthen In Q3 GDP Report
US economic growth remains on track to accelerate in the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Fed Minutes Signal More Tightening Amid Mixed Inflation Data
The Federal Reserve appears poised to raise interest rates again to keep inflation in check, but exactly when remains uncertain, according to minutes from its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Investors continue to price in another hike, although mixed inflation signals are muddying the outlook.
What’s Fueling Portfolio Gains in 2026? Commodities and Stocks
To the extent that globally diversified portfolios are posting strong gains this year, two asset classes account for most of the upside: commodities and stocks.
Bond Vigilantes Find New Reasons to Worry
Treasury yields pushed higher again on Monday, with several key maturities reaching fresh multi-decade highs. Multiple forces are driving market rates upward, and there is little indication that relief is imminent.
Rising Treasury Yields Haven’t Cracked the Bull Market…Yet
The stock market has been rattled by the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month, but the bullish trend in equities has so far bent rather than broken. That resilience will likely be tested if yields continue climbing, a scenario that will largely hinge on the path of energy prices and inflation in the weeks and months ahead.