The Federal Reserve appears poised to raise interest rates again to keep inflation in check, but exactly when remains uncertain, according to minutes from its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Investors continue to price in another hike, although mixed inflation signals are muddying the outlook.
What’s Fueling Portfolio Gains in 2026? Commodities and Stocks
To the extent that globally diversified portfolios are posting strong gains this year, two asset classes account for most of the upside: commodities and stocks.
Bond Vigilantes Find New Reasons to Worry
Treasury yields pushed higher again on Monday, with several key maturities reaching fresh multi-decade highs. Multiple forces are driving market rates upward, and there is little indication that relief is imminent.
Rising Treasury Yields Haven’t Cracked the Bull Market…Yet
The stock market has been rattled by the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month, but the bullish trend in equities has so far bent rather than broken. That resilience will likely be tested if yields continue climbing, a scenario that will largely hinge on the path of energy prices and inflation in the weeks and months ahead.
Book Bits: 3 October 2026
● A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World
Robin Wigglesworth
Interview with author via Axios
Long-term government bond yields for the U.S. and other G7 countries have been climbing — hovering at levels last seen in 2007 before the financial crisis — and raising concerns about borrowing costs growing more expensive for countries that are already staring down heavy debt loads. The AI boom, meanwhile, has spread to the market for corporate bonds, sparking worries about a bubble. It’s a perfect moment to release a book laying out the history of the bond market: “A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World”. In the book, Wigglesworth reminds us that some of the biggest financial messes of the past 50 years were bond blowups.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 October 2026
The long-run return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in September. Fueled by a decline in financial markets last month, GMI’s projected return increased for a fifth straight month.
Major Asset Classes | September 2026 | Performance Review
Commodities and cash were the only winners among the major asset classes in September. The rest of the field lost ground, led by property shares in the U.S. and around the world, based on a set of ETFs.
Treasury Yields Keep Rising. Can the Economy Keep Up?
One of the more persuasive explanations for the recent increase in U.S. Treasury yields is that the economy remains resilient, prompting the bond market to push interest rates higher in response to a stronger growth outlook. Recent third-quarter GDP nowcasts support that narrative. The catch is that higher interest rates may be a double-edged sword: while they can signal economic strength, they can also undermine it by creating headwinds for future growth. The growth narrative may be convincing, but it is unlikely to be the whole story. Some of the other factors driving yields higher paint a less reassuring picture.
Tomorrow’s PCE Inflation Report May Boost Fed Hike Bets
Wednesday’s release of August PCE inflation data is expected to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. The bond market is signaling a similar outlook as key Treasury yields continue to test recent highs.
What Does Today’s Yield Curve Suggest for a Bond Ladder?
US Treasury yields continued to rise last week, and the trend profile suggests we haven’t seen the peak yet. The benchmark 10-year yield, for example, increased for a fourth straight week, closing on Friday at 5.16%, just below the highest level since 2007.