US economic growth remains on track to post a modestly stronger increase in the second quarter compared with Q1, according to the median nowcast from a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Despite heightened inflation risks stemming from the Middle East energy shock, output appears relatively resilient so far for GDP in the current quarter.
Real Yields Near 20-Year Highs As Energy Shock Continues
The 10‑year real US Treasury yield is hovering near a 20‑year high, with the 5‑year not far behind. Whether this is a good moment to lock in inflation‑indexed yields may hinge on how the Gulf crisis evolves in the months ahead.
Rising Misery Index Signals Mounting Economic Pressure
Economic headwinds continue to reverberate from the conflict in the Middle East, but the US economy has proven relatively resilient in the wake of this macro shock. How long that resilience lasts is unclear, but the pressures are building. That’s a worrisome sign as the stalemate between the US and Iran continues and energy exports from the Gulf remain blocked.
As Inflation Heats Up, the Bond Market Loses Its Cool
The bond market will be the center of attention for investors this week as they assess how much inflation risk is lurking. Official reports already highlight accelerating pricing pressures, driven by Middle East turmoil that has lifted energy costs and raised headline measures of inflation. The debate is whether the run‑up in inflation is temporary or reflects a shift that will persist. Bound up with that question is how the Federal Reserve should respond.
Book Bits: 16 May 2026
● The New Money Strategy: The Modern Guide to Rational, Long-Term Investing
Brandon van der Kolk
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
The New Money Strategy: The Modern Guide to Rational, Long-Term Investing is the ultimate strategy guide to help a new generation of investors harness the power of value investing and the stock market. In this book, Brandon van der Kolk, founder of the popular New Money YouTube channel with more than one million dedicated subscribers, reveals the common mistakes people are making in the markets today and the time-tested strategy to build long term wealth.
Factor Extremes: Momentum Runs Hot as Low-Vol Stumbles
The US stock market surged to yet another record high on Thursday, a new milestone that suggests a rising tide is lifting all equity sectors. Yet reviewing the market through a risk-factor risk lens tells a more nuanced story, revealing a wide dispersion of trends that have emerged since the conflict with Iran began on Feb. 28, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (May 14).
Treasury Premium Climbs Again, Fueled by Sticky Inflation
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield over a fair‑value estimate remained modest in April but has been edging higher after falling to a near‑equilibrium level late last year. The threat of higher inflation stemming from the Iran conflict remains a risk factor, though the repricing of the market premium has been modest so far.
US–Iran Crisis Edges Toward Prolonged Stalemate
President Trump is warning that the US could restart strikes on Iran, a stance that reads less like a negotiating tactic and more like the opening move in a drawn‑out standoff. A few days ago, he described the fragile cease-fire as being on “massive life support.” In other words, a long, grinding stalemate appears to be taking shape. That’s a threat to the global economy because as the impasse drags on and energy exports from the Gulf remain blocked, the world’s oil supply shrinks and scarcity risks rise.
Higher Inflation is Becoming Baked Into Expectations
President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is on “massive life support,” which suggests that inflation risk will remain elevated.
Nowcast Points to Steady US Growth in Q2
US economic growth is expected to hold steady at a 2%-plus pace in the second quarter, according to the median nowcast from several estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This early estimate for the current quarter suggests that the economy may be more resilient to the effects of the Middle East conflict than previously assumed.