The brinkmanship between the U.S. government and the bond market continued on Thursday following the Treasury Department’s announcement the day before that it would double repurchases of longer‑dated Treasuries in a bid to lower yields. The statement worked—briefly—as yields dipped in early trading on Thursday, but by the end of the session rates snapped higher.
US Treasury Tries to Slow Surging Yields with a Band‑Aid Fix
The Treasury tried to put a lid on rising yields this week, doubling the size of its bond‑buyback program in a bid to steady the market. The move triggered an immediate rally—the price of Treasury bonds jumped and yields fell. But the relief will likely be fleeting. The same powerful economic and financial forces that have been driving yields higher remain firmly in place, and a larger buyback program won’t change market sentiment.
Equities Hit a Speed Bump as Semis Slide and Yields Climb
Stocks extended their decline for a third straight session on Tuesday (Aug. 18), renewing debate over the durability of the equity rally at a moment when rising Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns, and a still‑simmering conflict with Iran threaten to keep pressure on risk assets. Short‑term market direction is unknowable, but several indicators are worth watching to gauge how resilience is evolving and if the current setback is an early clue of deeper trouble ahead.
Treasury Yields Spike as Fiscal Drift and Global Risks Pile Up
The US 30‑year Treasury yield rose sharply on Monday, breaking higher after spending the first half of August in a tight range. The move signals the bond market’s growing unease with several risk factors, including inflation and government debt.
Does the July Retail Decline Mark the Start of a Growth Downshift?
The surprisingly weak retail sales data for July could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in U.S. economic activity will continue in the second half of the year. One monthly report should be viewed cautiously, but a broader review of the latest economic numbers hints that growth may be softer than recent GDP nowcasts imply.
10‑Year Yield Premium Rises on Inflation Risk and Fed Uncertainty
The market premium for the U.S. 10‑year Treasury continued rising in July, increasing to the highest level in a year. A key catalyst: inflation uncertainty related to the simmering Iran conflict and ambiguity about the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy.
Disinflation Gains Traction, but the Bond Market Isn’t Buying It
Consumer inflation eased in July, providing the Federal Reserve with a fresh round of data to stay patient on the decision of whether to raise interest rates. The bond market remains skeptical, but yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for last month, along with readings from alternative CPI benchmarks, suggests that pricing pressure is, at worst, stabilizing if not easing. Looking ahead to the next update, a pair of CPI nowcasts for August point to ongoing disinflation this month.
Copper’s Rise Continues As Gold Tries to Claw Back Lost Ground
After correcting through much of the Iran conflict to date, precious metals are starting to revive based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Aug. 11). Meanwhile, copper’s resilience during the war has endured as the metal continues to set new highs.
Foreign Stocks Lose Their Edge as US Momentum Roars Back
Foreign equities continue to outperform U.S. stocks this year, but there are signs that international leadership is faltering, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Aug. 10).
Will the Bond Market Verify the Stock Market’s Revived Optimism?
Last week’s stock market surge sends a message that all is well, but that’s only half a loaf until the bond market confirms the recovery in expectations.