Macro Briefing: 16 October 2025

US to take control of more companies as counter to China’s dominance in rare earth supplies, which are critical for a range of industries. “When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policy,” Treasury Secretary Bessent said. “So we’re going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again and we’re going to do it across a range of industries.” An ETF targeting companies in the rare earth industry fell on Wednesday after trading at a record high the previous day.

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Geopolitical Risk Sends Rare Earth Stocks Soaring

Geopolitics has been a key risk factor in economic and financial trends this year, including companies engaged in mining and processing of rare earth elements. As tensions rise between the US and China on access to these critical commodities, creating fears of supply chain shocks, stocks in the industry are roaring higher, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s’ close (Oct. 13).

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Macro Briefing: 14 October 2025

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday the government shutdown is starting to affect the U.S. economy. “It’s starting to affect the real economy. It’s starting to affect people’s lives,” he said in a TV interview. The latest update of the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index continues to reflect moderate growth: “The WEI is currently 2.42 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended Oct. 4 and 2.37 percent for Sept. 27.”

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Macro Briefing: 13 October 2025

The US breakeven employment level — the number of jobs required each month to keep the labor market in balance — has declined after immigration changes, estimates a researcher at the Dallas Fed: “A new, high-frequency estimate of break-even employment shows a dramatic reversal in immigration flows, combined with cyclical shifts in labor force participation, has caused the monthly break-even requirement to collapse from a peak of approximately 250,000 in 2023 to about 30,000 in mid-2025.”

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Book Bits: 11 October 2025

The Art of Spending Money: Simple Choices for a Richer Life
Morgan Housel
Q&A with author via Kiplinger
Q: The title of your new book is The Art of Spending Money. How is spending money an art?
A: It’s an art because it’s not a science. I wish I could say, here’s how everybody should spend, but I don’t think a formula for how everyone should spend exists. The spending that works for me and makes me happy might be wrong for you, and vice versa. Some people might find that disappointing, that I’m basically giving an overview of the psychology of spending money. But you have to figure it out for yourself, because I don’t know you or your life experiences. I’m still trying to figure all this out for myself, too.

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GDP Nowcasts Still Indicate Moderate US Growth For Q3

The government shutdown is delaying economic reports, but the latest numbers available continue to indicate a solid increase in the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The longer the shutdown lasts, however, the greater the uncertainty as the nowcast inputs age and fail to reflect the latest economic changes.

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